Falling Pupil Rolls: Risk, Experience and Opportunity

Falling birth rates and demographic shifts mean many schools are grappling with declining pupil numbers – and the knock-on effects for budgets and staffing. In this episode, Liz Worthen draws on conversations from recent podcast guests to share three practical strands for tackling the challenge: managing risk, creating memorable experiences, and spotting opportunity.

In this episode:

• Why falling rolls should be treated as a strategic planning risk, with insight from school business leaders Helen Burge and Emma Gray on monitoring KPIs, staff turnover and pupil movement.
• The reputational and communications risks of restructuring, and why bringing stakeholders into the conversation early matters.
• How to take a customer-centred approach to open evenings and first impressions – lessons from Sufian Sadiq, Chief Talent and Transformation Officer at Chiltern Learning Trust, on curating an experience families remember.
• Why an enterprising mindset matters for identifying fresh opportunities, featuring insight from Justin Smith's master's research into creating an income generation culture.
• Real examples from the DfE's education estates strategy on repurposing surplus space – from wraparound hubs to specialist SEND bases.

“If you can see it happening in three years’ time, you need to do something about it.”

“It's putting yourself in the shoes of the customer, thinking about our kids and our parents as customers, and how we engage and communicate with them.”

Enjoyed this episode? Subscribe to the newsletter for ongoing insights, and get in touch to share your own experience of changing pupil demographics.

Featured episodes

• Episode 27: Unbound SBLs: Reconsidering Risk with Helen Burge and Emma Gray
• Episode 35: Think Like an Entrepreneur: Creative Solutions for School Leaders with Sufian Sadiq
• Episode 31: Win-Win: Fundraising relationships for lasting impact with Justin Smith, Vicki Newsome, Richard Manville and Matthew Smith MBE.

Links and resources

• Join the newsletter for fortnightly resources, insights and updates
• Get in touch and tell us about your experience of falling pupil rolls
• More on risk management as a tool for strategic planning: More than a tick-box exercise: turning risk into strategy 
• More on fundraising: Five steps to effective school fundraising 
• About the DfE’s estates strategy: Towards a sustainable education estate 
• The DfE education estates strategy 

Guest contributors

Emma Gray and Helen Burge have both been executive business leaders in trusts, and now support school business professionals through coaching, training and consultancy. Emma is a DfE accredited school resource management advisor, and Helen co-chairs the UK Schools Sustainability Network Operations Group. They are fans of risk management, internal scrutiny and operational excellence. 

Sufian Sadiq is Chief Talent & Transformation Officer at Chiltern Learning Trust, as well as Co-President Elect of the Chartered College of Teaching. Responsible for the Chiltern Teaching School, Sufian brings an innovative approach to trainee and staff recruitment, as well as the delivery of high-quality CPD. He also hosts the Muslim Teachers’ Association podcast, ‘An audience with’. 

With 20 years’ experience in the education sector, Justin Smith provides specialist marketing, income generation and bid writing services through his company, Chameleon Consultancy and Training. He has secured over £7 million in additional income for schools.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome and the challenge

00:58 Risk planning for falling rolls

01:55 Staffing culture and reputation

05:30 Create a customer experience

06:05 Open evening details that matter

10:51 Think like an entrepreneur

11:18 Enterprise mindset and culture

12:45 Using surplus space creatively

13:40 Summary and next steps